Trump can win the presidency even if he loses the popular vote and fails to secure a majority of electoral votes.
The presidential election might be determined in just three states where Biden’s 2020 margin was less than one percent. Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona account for a total of 37 electoral votes (16, 11, and 10). Trump won all of them in 2016 and, if he wins them again, the electoral college will be deadlocked with each candidate gaining 269 electoral votes. If neither candidate has a majority in the electoral college, the final decision will be made in the House of Representatives where each state will have one vote regardless of population size. Republicans control the Congressional delegations of more states than the Democrats—so Trump can win the presidency even if he loses the popular vote and fails to secure a majority of electoral votes.
Arizona is particularly promising ground for the Trump campaign because of the worsening immigration problem. Wisconsin is more hopeful for Biden’s team given the strong support for legal abortion in that state. Georgia is the most unpredictable race. Both sides will try to produce record turnouts, but Republicans have the advantage of greater energy and momentum. In fact, across the country, right-wing enthusiasm is stronger than the tepid support for Biden among Democratic and independent votes who are unhappy with both candidates. This means that Biden’s campaign is more vulnerable than it wants to admit. No one can predict the outcome with any confidence. And no one has the ability to move public opinion in either direction before election day.
Democratic strategists are operating according to an outdated script…They still haven’t focused on the key battlefield—the three states that might decide the election’s outcome.
Democratic strategists are operating according to an outdated script. They are highlighting the Republican primary elections, searching for any hint of lagging support for Trump among all demographic groups. They are busy planning a nominating convention in Chicago, knowing there will be no suspense to attract an audience. And, this year, a key part of the standard script will be missing altogether—televised presidential debates have been torpedoed by the candidates themselves. Instead, Democratic leaders are betting that non-stop coverage of Trump’s many trials—and inevitable appeals—will eventually tilt the balance in Biden’s favor. But Democrats still haven’t focused on the key battlefield—the three states that might decide the election’s outcome.
The weakest part of the Democratic campaign is the effort to convince the public that “Bidenomics” has improved their daily lives. Rising stock indexes and rosy employment data obscure the deepening inequality and homelessness that afflict much of American society. Corporate earnings benefit a narrow propertied class while leaving ordinary citizens no better off. More jobs do not mean better incomes or more secure futures, particularly when organized labor is barely managing to survive.
Saddled with such a mixed economic record, Democrats are scrambling to find other issues that can resonate with anyone not yet swept up in the MAGA madness. So far, they have stressed Trump’s corruption and his threat to democracy, hoping that discrediting the leader will neutralize his followers. These assaults have greatly enriched Trump’s war chest, but they aren’t improving Biden’s dismal showing in public opinion polls.
Biden’s foreign policy is even less helpful than his economic achievements. His popularity sank drastically as soon as he ordered the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and his polling has remained in negative territory ever since. After boasting that his international expertise would promote world peace, he has become a war-time president entangled in two quagmires—Ukraine and the Middle East—and turning up the temperature with China on a third front. Sitting presidents seldom benefit from their foreign policies when seeking reelection, but they frequently suffer from obvious failures. Biden’s inability to gain the upper hand in any of his international struggles can make him at least as vulnerable as Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter—stumbling Democrats that were replaced by hawkish Republicans who provoked even greater foreign conflicts.
Sooner rather than later, the Biden team will have to move beyond Trump-bashing, ambiguous economic data, and international distractions. Winning in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia depends on sustained attention to abortion rights, immigration justice, and voter mobilization.
A weak president can still win a close election even if his campaign staff stumbles to find a coherent strategy. But no one should count on that outcome, especially if the stakes are as high as Biden says. Sooner rather than later, the Biden team will have to move beyond Trump-bashing, ambiguous economic data, and international distractions. Winning in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia depends on sustained attention to abortion rights, immigration justice, and voter mobilization. This is far more than a matter of effective messaging and clever branding. Biden’s people have to articulate clear policies and organize record-breaking turnout—and they have just a few months to finish the job.
Beyazomar 